Political Crystal Ball, Vol. 1
- Posted by Lord Bitememan on July 8th, 2009 filed in General Crystal Ball
Nothing is more fun than making a prediction or two. So, I’m starting an ongoing series, early here, about some of my prognostications for the future. First one here pertains to the 2012 Democratic Ticket. Joe Biden gets dropped. I’d put money on it. It’s as simple as this: Biden was picked as Obama’s running mate in 2008 because he has a 30 year tenure in the Senate and Obama wanted to shore up his perceived lack of experience. Nobody really know what an absolute moron he was and what a colossal drag he would be on both the ticket and the administration. The man produces more gaffs that Dan Quayle ever did, and shows no sign of slowing.
There are also tactical considerations at play here. In 2016 Biden will be 74, and he has a history of aneurysms. There’s no way he’s the Democratic successor. That leaves the prospect of a wide open field in 2016. The Democrats will likely remember what became of 2008, a marathon contest of personalities that degenerated into a Democratic civil war between blue collar and upscale Democrats. They don’t want a repeat of that. Having a successor in place would avert that, and Obama, if he doesn’t already realize this, will be under pressure by those who do to get someone capable of being the party’s nominee on that ticket.
So, the question is, who to bring on? The successor has to be someone young enough to be president, preferably it is someone from a state Barack Obama will have to fight to carry, and it has to be someone with some sort of record upon which he or she could springboard to the presidency. Someone considered a bright prospect within the Democratic party would be key. As it happens, there is just such a person in the Democrat’s arsenal. In 2016, he will only be 62. He hails from a state that Obama will have to fight to carry. He’s served as both a governor and a senator, giving him a record upon which to run his own candidacy. He’s also widely respected and embraced by the Democrats. That man is Mark Warner of Virginia.
So, the summary of Crystal Ball, Vol. 1, in 2012 Obama will dump Biden and name Mark Warner of Virginia as running mate.
Talmadge East says:
That thing must be really foggy because, absent a major health problem between now and 2010, this ain’t gonna happen.
Talmadge East says:
2012, I mean.
Lord Bitememan says:
You have some manner of rationale for how Biden stays on the ticket, or you’re just going by rote here?
Chris says:
I’m going to agree with Talmadge here for a couple reasons.
First, Obama is a bumbling idiot too. His gaffes are beyond Quayle and Bush’s combined. So in a way, Obama and Biden were made for each other.
Second, Obama is already being seen as a ready shoot aim decision maker who makes poor decisions no matter what. Dropping Biden would accent that. How will he sell it. “Boy, I really screwed up on that didn’t I?”
On a side note, Talmadge, you know as well as I do that a health problem can crop up at the last minute whether it be made up or an “accident” with the VP’s food. At that point, Hillary would move to VP and a year later, Obama would have that “accident”
Ok, I change my mind, I now agree with LB and know how it will happen. And people said the Clintons are out of it.
Lord Bitememan says:
Or, Chris, there is another option for how a “health concern” springs up for Biden. Obama sits him down sometime around late spring of 2012 and says “hey Joe. . . how’d you like being Vice President? Really? That’s nice. You’re not going to be by this time next year. So, you can spare yourself the humiliation of getting dropped from the ticket, or I can step on out and announce I’m going with someone else.”
“Really? Balls! Oh well, I guess I have another aneurysm.”
It’s unlikely that people would make the connection you are making about his judgment due to the change. More than likely people would evaluate his pick through the lens of pandering and political opportunism, which it would likely be. And, in all honesty, probably nobody would blame him for dropping Biden. The man is a train wreck.
jay says:
Barring major health problem or scandal, it’ll never happen. Biden says some dumb things, but none so far would merit looking like your administration is in upheaval during a re-election campaign.
Having an open field in ‘08 should have been good for the GOP but they lacked candidates. In ‘16, Dems will have Warner, Evan Bayh, maybe others. And even with aneurysms and being 74, Biden might run. McCain was 71 and had past health problems.
And Biden needs to put his foot in his mouth a heckuva a lot more before he catches up with Quayle.
“What a terrible waste it is to lose one’s mind.” — Quayle’s misinterpretation of the United Negro College Fund slogan.
Chris says:
true, but one other thing to consider. Obama is a major wreck too. The man is a bumbling moron too. Only Biden saves him from being the dumbest person to ever be part of an administration. Lose Biden and the gaffe light is all on him and his idiocy which can’t be hidden for that long.
Talmadge East says:
I did say “absent a major health problem” this won’t happen. Why? It is the sign of ultimate weakness and Obama will hide Biden in an undisclosed location if he feels that is warranted, but will not replace hi on the ticket.
Lord Bitememan says:
I don’t see where everyone is getting this artificial need to preserve the guy you went through the first election with from. It’s actually been quite common in history with little in the way of repercussion for it. Roosevelt dumped two VPs before Truman got the job. Nixon had every intention of getting rid of Agnew in favor of John Connally, and relented only out of fear of a conservative backlash (think about it through the lens of McCain dropping Sarah Palin from the ticket). We only have an idea that this is the way of things because dropping the VP in favor of someone new hasn’t happened in a while.
But, also consider that there was a large gap from Eisenhower to Reagan where presidents were dying in office or resigning, leaving a lot of Vice Presidents to run in their own right. Between FDR and Nixon the only VP we have who was retained on the ticket was, well, Nixon. Say what you will about Nixon, the man was brilliant and was actually a dynamic man in the office. If you were looking for a clear successor to a president who had election nailed down in his own right, Nixon was the man and was really only beaten due to the overwhelming charisma of Kennedy. We can never know if Kennedy would have retained Johnson, but by all accounts Kennedy deeply disliked him, and with certain victory all but assured against Barry Goldwater who is to say that Kennedy might not have moved to a figure with whom he was far more comfortable? Johnson would likely have retained Humphrey, the two had a good working relationship, and Johnson would definitely have liked a groomed counter-balance to the influence of the Kennedys (much think Obama vs. Clintons).
As to the late spate of retained VPs, can anyone fault the ones kept on the ticket (Quayle exempted)? Walter Mondale and George H.W. Bush were both deeply capable men who were benefits to the office. Gore and Cheney were no slouches in their own right either. The only one we should truly scratch our heads at is the retention of Dan Quayle. Quayle was clearly not up to the task, and ought to have been replaced. Why Bush Sr. never did it pretends less about any extant mores about dumping your vice president than it does about the political capabilities and judgment of George H.W. Bush (he lost that election, in case you don’t recall).
So really, what are we left with. Obama will certainly face no retaliation from factions within the Democratic party for dumping Biden (unlike if he were to dump Hillary Clinton, which would cause a civil war in the Democratic Party). Biden is no asset, save for the most cynical and Machiavellian of calculations (Obama looks genius by comparison to the bumbling Vice President), and the next election is going to hinge almost entirely on Obama’s handling of the economy, not whether or not he retained his VP. So, to all those saying “It would be seen as. . .” I retort, “or it won’t.”
That’s why it’s called a crystal ball. Wait and see.
Galin Iddy says:
Lord Bitemans have a good point. Biden could not run by his self either. The world end s in 20 12 and Jesus will than be our ONLY Presidnt!!!