Bleak
- Posted by Chris on September 27th, 2008 filed in 2008 election, Barack Obama, General, John McCain, Politics
I don’t give up. I always fight to the last breath. However, there comes a time when it becomes obvious what is happening to you and now, it cannot be denied anymore: Obama has taken a stranglehold on this election. I have had this feeling since Friday night and I still think the same thing. Obama’s lead is fatal and won’t be overcome by McCain. Senator McCain has had a terrible 10 days. First, McCain started to tank last week when he stood by and watched the whole meltdown mess. Obama was watching too, but was able to make enough noise about McCain doing nothing that no one noticed. Now, to be fair, McCain not jumping in isn’t what swayed people. When the economy tanks, people will want to fire the team in charge and right now, that’s McCain. No, it’s not fair, but that’s the way it is. Next, McCain’s trick (and yes, his DC trip is/was a campaign trick) backfired. After an initial bump up in the Zogby poll, he started back down as the people saw through it. Had he skipped that debate, Obama could confess to eating children he finds on the street and would still be elected. The debate on Friday was the final cut. He needed to find a way to stem his fall and he failed. I thought he edged out a win in the debate, but roughly half the coutry thinks Obama won and less than 40% say McCain won. Again, it’s not right, but that’s the way it is.
As of now, we have the following undeniable truths:
Colorado is out of the margin of error and pulling away
Michigan is out of contention.
Ohio is trending toward Obama (McCain has fallen from +2.5 to +1.2).
Florida is now in contention after McCain had it secured (down to +1.6 from +4.5)
PA is at +4.4% for Obama, up from the 2’s.
Missouri is coming back into play.
Virginia is +1.4 for Obama when it was for McCain.
The RCP national average is Obama +4.3
The Intrade is 56.6 for Obama to 42 for McCain being president
The electoral college count without tossups has Obama +34 when he was +8
Any one of those can be dismissed, but you cannot ignore reality. Reality is that everything is trending to Obama and unless something big happens, this show is over and Obama is going to win big. We need a major gaffe by Obama or the 527’s to get off their butts or we’re in very serious trouble.
The first counter attack should be Sarah Palin in the debate. She needs to point out the fact that Obama has 3 people who had over 100 million in total “golden parachutes” from FM/FM on his staff. She needs to take a copy of that lawyer letter threatening the various TV stations and ask why Biden would support a censoring candidate. In short, she needs to do McCain’s job for him. Forget reassuring people about her abilities. Win the election and you have 4 years to do that. Her entire debate needs to be a full scale attack on Obama, ignoring Biden.
We need the 527’s to put up ads linking Obama with Ayers, Wright, and whoever else we can find to let people know what kind of person Obama is. We need commercials detailing his Infant Born Alive act views. If we can’t tell people who Obama really is, we’re finished. It’s frustrating, yes. I know people who voted for W twice who are so sick of him and the republicans that they are voting Obama. Insanity? Yes, but again, that’s the way it is and we have to deal with that reality.
Our side needs to do something fast. It is going to be hard as heck to turn this around and debates like Friday will not help. The real Obama needs to be shown far and wide. We need to be supportive of McCain when he bashes Bush. He has to separate himself from Bush and the only way to do that is by publicly calling him out. We need to call the TV stations under fire for running commercials and give them support. We need to get the 527’s off their collective rears and get going on Obama.
I don’t like being the wet blanket but reality is reality and right now, reality says we’re looking at POTUS Obama. It is time for the last stand. As the swarms of the enemy start to engulf us, we need to take that deep breath, take a look at our comrades in arms and charge into the fight. Our future depends on it.
Greg says:
Talmadge East says:
This may stem from my being a Democrat, but I am not as optimistic of our chances as you are. Sure I hope everything you say comes to pass, but I wouldn’t be so bleak. I would offer you this advice though: Don’t hang your hat on Sarah Palin’s VP debate. True, she will win the expectations game, and might very well win the debate, but it won’t matter. Even Lloyd Bentsen’s shellacking of Quayle didn’t matter, and this won’t either. Another very obvious reason I wouldn’t depend on Mrs. Palin is that her recent TV appearances (minus Hannity, which is about as friendly as a Republican can get) have been disastrous. There is a reason you saw Biden after the debates and not Palin, he is just more informed. Now, I don’t personally care. Almost all VP choices have been political, and she is no different. Also she will do better in a quasi-scripted debate than on live television. The main point is, if the ship is really going down, you better hope McCain has something left.
Marvin says:
The real question looming over the election, is what if anything will be done about the economy.
Right now, the blame game is on, but this requires Congressional action - the House Republicans can not stop the House Democrats from passing a bill, the Speaker of the House has shown zero leadership and her 9% approval rating is in danger of going down.
The Senator Majority Leader has also done nothing. The Senate Republicans, who can block a bill from passing, have not yet been allowed to speak.
On Monday, Sept 29th, the stock market will crash, unless Congress meets and votes and approves a deal.
9/29/08 - exactly 79 years after the 1929 Stock Market Crash, we will have another major crash.
Frankly, I pity the fool who gets elected this year. Remember, President Hubert Hoover.
A deal which puts money into the financial sector, with any and all profits going to retire the US Govt debt - would be a winner.
Also, don’t get so negative on McCain’s chances, most of the polls are very biased in favor of Democrats, and most Americans do not trust the major news networks.
The fat lady has even started to warm up.
and it ain’t over till she sings.
PK says:
I think that you’re under estimating the people in PA and FLA. I know many life long democrats who have announced that they are not voting for Obama, and for the first time in their lives are voting Republican.
Talmadge East says:
This is a little off the beaten path, but I think you are completely wrong Marvin. For a conservative to tell me, someone who is working his way slowly through college, that I need to bailout these financial corporations when I saw none of the benefit strikes of hypocrisy. I have yet to hear a legitimate argument as to WHY I have to bail these people out. The market won’t crash, it will however correct itself and maybe we can look forward to a little fiscal sanity in the future. There are plenty of economists who aren’t ready to throw in the towel and say big government is the solution to this problem.
sierrahome says:
I think Talmadge East is very correct and so is Chris.
jcatara says:
I agree with PK. I think we the people are alot smarter than the pollsters say we are. Im in my late 50’s and I have never been polled. Im a retired UAW worker. Before I retired I was surprised at how many of my dyed in the wool Democrat friends said they just couldn’t vote for BO. I guess we will see when the final poll is taken in November, but will it be over the day after the election? History has taught us Dem’s don’t like to admit they lost.
Chris says:
“For a conservative to tell me, someone who is working his way slowly through college, that I need to bailout these financial corporations when I saw none of the benefit strikes of hypocrisy. I have yet to hear a legitimate argument as to WHY I have to bail these people out. The market won’t crash, it will however correct itself and maybe we can look forward to a little fiscal sanity in the future. There are plenty of economists who aren’t ready to throw in the towel and say big government is the solution to this problem.”
You sure you’re a democrat? That is the classic conservative line that yes, unfortunately the conservatives of today seem to have abandoned…
I think that you’re under estimating the people in PA and FLA. I know many life long democrats who have announced that they are not voting for Obama, and for the first time in their lives are voting Republican.
PK, I have heard that and I have been cruising the PUMA blogs and they are pretty unanimous that unless McCain wins, Hillary cannot make a comeback. However, we should have seen some of that in the polls. My fear is we have seen it in the polls and that there aren’t enough of those crossovers to swing it.
Chris says:
Greg: Thank you. I have always tried to keep it reality based, but sometimes, reality reshapes itself. Early on, I thought McCain would be the worst candidate, but as this has evolved, I think he is probably one of the few we sent into battle that had a chance to beat Obama or Hillary. He did have that chance and some very uncharacteristic decisions have killed it. The Palin pick has been his last good decision. It is still a good pick, no her interviews haven’t gone as well as we would have liked, but she has healed the base nicely and neither Romney or Rudy or Pawlenty could have. But ever since, it’s like he’s stopped trying. He looked at the shift in polls and said, “game over” and relaxed. That was the fatal part. If we had 2-3 months to recover, I would not be worried. We don’t. We have fewer than 40 days. That’s the problem.
Now, I call a republican going to Obama insanity because as bad as some of the things W has done are, Obama’s will be significantly worse. 50% tax on small businesses? Increased spending like crazy? Ultra left wing judges? To support something like that when you voted Bush twice to me is insane. Democrats supporting Obama isn’t. They think that Obama’s policies will be the magic pixie dust to heal the world. I would expect them to support him. Republicans, however, should keep to the beliefs and not the hype. For all his warts, Bush is still a better president than Obama will be and that is spoken from someone who has a Bush’s last day countdown going.
Anyway, reality as it currently is says that Obama owns this now and we have to try to stem some bleeding in the House and Senate to keep from going below 40 Senators.
Talmadge East says:
Yes, I am a Democrat, but mostly because I am involved in politics and it is not often cogent to be a switch hitter. I do think government can and should solve problems, but that doesn’t mean that government is the solution to EVERY problem. I just hate to see my tax money go to bailing out people that SHOULD be smarter than me, but made worse investments.
Philo T Phlegm says:
You know, if the people in this damn country are really that fucking stupid as to actually elect that arrogant cadaver, than they deserve all the fucking suffering and misery that they will no doubt get.
Stupid cocksuckers!
I just don’t see how anybody can keep wiggling back and forth with their opinions, as people have over the past 2 weeks. If you told me McCain were a practicing member of the Manson Family I still would vote for him over Obama bin Laden. I don’t see how people can keep waffling back and forth unless something unforseeable happens that’s so drastic and unbelievable as to overturn everything (which hasn’t happened).
It never ceases to baffle me, the degree of liberal idiocy and self loathing. I can understand the self loathing part. If I were them I’d hate my fucking guts too, and for good reason.
Unfortunately, the rest of us have to suffer because of the liberal guilt, and all around stupidity that these loads of manure have in abundance. Personally, I’ve officially lost all hope for this country. It’s going down the toilet as we speak, and it won’t be saved. Common sense is fighting a losing battle against Leftist assholes. We don’t need to fear any other countries or enemies destroying us, because we will do it to our own selves from within. The liberal reign of idiocy and self hatred will see to that.
As Barry McGuire said, we really are on the eve of destruction.
Trollhammer says:
Does Beth still live here?
Chris says:
Hi Trollhammer! Yep, she’s still here. She owns the place so she can’t go too far!
Talmadge East says:
How articulate Philo. I am non to concerned.
Kevin says:
Here take a ook at this, I think it may turn that frown upside down : http://newsbusters.org/blogs/terry-trippany/2008/09/27/aol-straw-poll-mccain-63-obama-37
I think this poll that is completely just ‘come as you are and vote’ is MUCH more indicative of the mood of the country. Now granted, we cannot let our guard down and we have to get ready for a huge push but it’s nowhere near as bad as you make it out to be. Like others have said most of those polls are very biased in their polling sample anyhow. Remember last time when the exit polls had Kerry warming up his teleprompter for his acceptance speech? They were wrong too.
Also I am going to ask all of you to go to my blog and view the video I just posted there and distribute it over hill and dale, far and wide! I think it is the most important piece of information I have ever posted. Get it to everyone.
This battle is far from lost my friends, the American people see the empty suit that is Barack Husssien Obama, and they will NOT let him in the White House. I hate to say it but I can see an Obama presidency inciting an armed insurrection in this country. We cannot, will not, and must not tolerate a Marxist in the White House.
http://www.americanarmed.blogspot.com
Stix says:
I will have to disagree with you Chris. I an noysaying McCain has won it yet, but the MSM is finally starting to look into Obama’s ACORN days and there are at least 8 million or more PUMAs that will never vote for Obama. I have never and will never trust the polls. They are biased and are never correct. Kerry was ahead of Bush by more in the polls in 2004 and look what happened. the only thing that could really derail McCain is what happened in 2006 when the conservatives stayed home or stuck it to the Republicans for their lack of conservative running of the country.
The country is not in hte LEft wing and I have faith that they will n ot vote for the most Liberal Candidate to run for President. At least I hope that the American public can see thru the empty suit that is Obama. He is a yes man for the far left in this country.
It will be a close race if Obama wins it or a landslide if McCain wins it. But we will see on Nov 4.
Isn’t Beth posting more over at Blogs for McCain now???
Lord Bitememan says:
Chis is right and the ship is sunk. The best thing we can do now is focus on trying to win on the ballot initiatives in the states. Here in Mich. we have a stem cell research one to bury.
raz0r says:
Talmadge - I’m a dyed in the wool conservative. I resent this bailout. I’m almost in the camp of “give me some gas and a match and I’ll set the fire”.
——————————————–
The folks most at blame for this aren’t investors, but rather our elected officials. The morons had implemented a plan that pushed banks to make loans to people who weren’t where they needed to be fiscally. Or else….
Once that boulder started rolling, there was no place to go but downhill. The sad thing, it all could have been avoided, which even Billy Jeff admits.
I hope each of us remembers this come election time. Vote the scum out. Push for investigation to see whose pockets were lined. Sue them for recovery of all assets and monies.
Greg says:
Kevin Says:
“I hate to say it but I can see an Obama presidency inciting an armed insurrection in this country.”
You go Kevin
chuck says:
We need to do all we can, but the situation is not dire for McCain. I know dyed in the wool Democrats who were Hillary supporters who are voting Republican
Stix says:
As of right now the Dow Jones made up almost half of what it lost yesterday. This is not a dire situation for McCain.
Never trust the polls. If wethere were accurate, we would havehad both AlGore andKEryasPresident. They both had higher leads at this time than does Obama.
Stix says:
they were accurate, sorry mistyped in the middle there and Kerry as President.
Talmadge East says:
First of all the election results bore out what actually happened in 2000 (Al Gore was slightly ahead, and hot slightly more votes), and there was a steady slide after the conventions toward Bush and that came to fruition with John Kerry losing. Sure some polls are inaccurate, but to discount them completely is folly.
Denise-Mary says:
Former Dem here, late fifties, and pushing for a McCain win since early last May. I agree that I find the polls disheartening. I believe the McCain campaign needs to pull out all the stops, get the info about BHO “out there,” non-stop between now and November 4, particularly BHO’s longstanding affiliation with ACORN, and his campaign finance chairperson walking away with millions after her bank failed in the subprime debacle. And if they haven’t mentioned BHO being the second-highest recipient of funds from FMae and FMac, well, that wouldn’t hurt, either. We’re running out of time, and the Repubs aren’t pushing hard enough. Just MHO.
Fight For Michigan says:
Michigan is NOT lost for McCain!
The Polls are being manipulated.
There has not been an unbiased poll for Michigan since the September 25th poll that claimed Obama was up +13… another poll that same day claimed the candidates were tied. Detroit Free Press poll on Independent Voters claiming they were shifting to Obama was a Fraud, was found to have two Code Pink members on the panel.
The average of the polls out now for Michigan show a +6 for Obama, which is clearly within the margin of error, most folks who are not engaged in politics find Obama laughable… wouldn’t even consider voting for him.
Kerry was up +13 in 2004 and Kerry barely won the state by +3 on election day.
The liberal media is controlling exposure to the truth… even the smallest criticism of Obama will get you banned from forums.
Fight For Michigan!
Bring Sarah back
http://www.fightformichigan.com