MY Vast Right Wing Conspiracy

Active Hurricane Season Predicted for 2007

• Posted by Beth on May 22nd, 2007 filed in General, Hurricane, Katrina    

I know, they said that last year and (thankfully!) it was a bust. Don’t get complacent–complacency about hurricanes is what gets people killed. Make sure you’re ready in case you need to hit the road! Here’s the report:

NOAA’s 2007 Atlantic hurricane season outlook indicates a very high 75% chance of an above-normal hurricane season, a 20% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 5% chance of a below-normal season. This outlook is produced by scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC), National Hurricane Center (NHC), Hurricane Research Division (HRD), and Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC). See NOAA definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons.

The outlook calls for a very high likelihood of an above-normal hurricane season, with 13-17 named storms, 7-10 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes. The likely range of the ACE index is 125% to 210% of the median. This prediction signifies an expected sharp increase in activity from the near-normal season observed in 2006.

The prediction for an above-normal 2007 hurricane season reflects the expected combination of two main climate factors: 1) the continuation of conditions that have been conducive to above-normal Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995, and 2) the strong likelihood of either ENSO-neutral or La Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

An updated Atlantic hurricane outlook will be issued in early August, which begins the peak (August-October) of the hurricane season.

Regarding La Niña:

“There is some uncertainty this year as to whether or not La Niña will form, and if it does how strong it will be,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center. “The Climate Prediction Center is indicating that La Niña could form in the next one to three months. If La Niña develops, storm activity will likely be in the upper end of the predicted range, or perhaps even higher depending on how strong La Niña becomes. Even if La Niña does not develop, the conditions associated with the ongoing active hurricane era still favor an above-normal season.”

Bleh. I hate dealing with the nagging threat of hurricanes, but I guess it’s the price you pay to live in Paradise. It sure gets old, though, and I’ve only lived here for a few years. I have a feeling that a lot of people that don’t evacuate stay home because they get sick of packing up and heading for higher ground, because I know that by the time Katrina came, I was already thinking of riding it out. If my daughter had been on vacation with her dad, I just might have stayed home (out of laziness more than complacency). Katrina certainly straightened out that sort of thinking.

I just pray we’ll get lucky again this year. There are still a lot of people who need a break from hurricanes–people who still haven’t gotten even close to being back to normal yet.